Micah Insights
ISSUE OF SUN, OCT 11, 2026
One week of prediction-market readings, and what moved them. This is a past issue, kept as published.
THE LEAD · 2026 BALANCE OF POWER
The chambers have never been this far apart.
The Senate index reads 54.2 and the Governor 46.0, 8.2 points apart (the widest gap on record; over 2 weeks on record the gap has run 8.1–8.2).
8.2SPREAD · PTS
54.2SENATE
46.0GOVERNOR
The spread has run 8.1–8.2 over 2 weeks on record. Index levels on a 0–100 scale, not the probability of any single outcome.
No pair cleared the floor this week.
Oct 11Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 11?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index100%
Oct 11Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 11?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index97%
Oct 11Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 11?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index100%
Oct 12Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 11, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index43%
Oct 12Israel military action against Lebanon on October 11?Polymarket · Global War Index99%
Oct 12Will Russia target Kyiv on October 11, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index98%
Oct 12Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index3%
Oct 12Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 5-11?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index3%
Oct 12Will the S&P 500 be above 7809.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 10am EDT? - 7,810 or aboveKalshi · S&P 500 Index41%
Oct 12Will the S&P 500 be above 7810.58 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?Kalshi · S&P 500 Index58%
Oct 12S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $785 on October 12?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index8%
Oct 12S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 12?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index56%
Oct 12Will the S&P 500 be between 7800 and 7824.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT? - 7,800 to 7,824.9999Kalshi · S&P 500 Index20%
Oct 13Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 12?Polymarket · Global War Index92%
Oct 13Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 12?Polymarket · Global War Index84%
Oct 14Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 13, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index45%
Oct 16Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 12 2026?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index87%
Oct 16Bitcoin price on Oct 16, 2026? - $80,000 or aboveKalshi · Bitcoin Index83%
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Sign in free with GoogleThis week’s issueIssue of Tue, Oct 27, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.3 ptsIssue of Sun, Oct 25, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 11.0 ptsIssue of Sun, Oct 18, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.6 ptsSign inIssue of Sun, Oct 4, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 27, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 20, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 13, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 11.0 ptsSign in