Micah Insights
ISSUE OF SUN, SEP 13, 2026
One week of prediction-market readings, and what moved them. This is a past issue, kept as published.
THE LEAD · 2026 BALANCE OF POWER
The chambers have never been this far apart.
The Senate index reads 54.4 and the Governor 43.4, 11.0 points apart (the widest gap on record; over 3 weeks on record the gap has run 10.3–11).
11.0SPREAD · PTS
54.4SENATE
43.4GOVERNOR
The spread has run 10.3–11 over 3 weeks on record. Index levels on a 0–100 scale, not the probability of any single outcome.
No pair cleared the floor this week.
Sep 13Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 13?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index100%
Sep 13Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 13?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index94%
Sep 13Will Russia target Kyiv on September 13, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index100%
Sep 14Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 September 7-13?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index0%
Sep 14Will Sep-26 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,650 on September 11 2026? (ES) (Stock market) (Wall Street) (Equities) (CME)?ForecastEx · S&P 500 Index98%
Sep 14Will the S&P 500 be above 7539.9999 on Sep 14, 2026 at 10am EDT? - 7,540 or aboveKalshi · S&P 500 Index93%
Sep 14Will the S&P 500 be above 7649.9999 on Sep 14, 2026 at 10am EDT? - 7,650 or aboveKalshi · S&P 500 Index56%
Sep 14Will the S&P 500 be above 7656.85 on Sep 14, 2026 at 4pm EDT?Kalshi · S&P 500 Index36%
Sep 14Will the S&P 500 be below 7225 on Sep 14, 2026 at 4pm EDT? - 7,224.9999 or belowKalshi · S&P 500 Index2%
Sep 14S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 14?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index25%
Sep 15Will Iran target Kuwait by September 15, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index55%
Sep 15Will Ukraine target Moscow by September 15, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index49%
Sep 15Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index30%
Sep 16Israel military action against Lebanon on September 16?Polymarket · Global War Index92%
Sep 18Bitcoin price on Sep 18, 2026? - $71,000 or aboveKalshi · Bitcoin Index95%
Sep 18Bitcoin price on Sep 18, 2026? - $69,500 or aboveKalshi · Bitcoin Index97%
Sep 18Bitcoin price on Sep 18, 2026? - $70,500 or aboveKalshi · Bitcoin Index95%
Sep 18US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?Polymarket · Global War Index92%
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Sign in free with GoogleThis week’s issueIssue of Tue, Oct 27, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.3 ptsIssue of Sun, Oct 25, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 11.0 ptsIssue of Sun, Oct 18, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.6 ptsSign inIssue of Sun, Oct 11, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 8.2 ptsSign inIssue of Sun, Oct 4, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 27, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 20, 2026No lead that weekSign in