Micah Insights
ISSUE OF SUN, OCT 18, 2026
One week of prediction-market readings, and what moved them. This is a past issue, kept as published.
THE LEAD · 2026 BALANCE OF POWER
The chambers have never been this far apart.
The House index reads 52.3 and the Governor 41.7, 10.6 points apart (the widest gap on record; over 3 weeks on record the gap has run 8.1–10.6).
10.6SPREAD · PTS
52.3HOUSE
41.7GOVERNOR
The spread has run 8.1–10.6 over 3 weeks on record. Index levels on a 0–100 scale, not the probability of any single outcome.
No pair cleared the floor this week.
Oct 18Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 18?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index100%
Oct 18Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 18?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index99%
Oct 19Israel military action against Lebanon on October 18?Polymarket · Global War Index95%
Oct 19Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 12-18?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index9%
Oct 19Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 12-18?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index3%
Oct 19Will the S&P 500 be above 7649.9999 on Oct 19, 2026 at 10am EDT? - 7,650 or aboveKalshi · S&P 500 Index56%
Oct 19Will the S&P 500 be above 7739.9999 on Oct 19, 2026 at 4pm EDT? - 7,740 or aboveKalshi · S&P 500 Index18%
Oct 19S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index25%
Oct 19Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.41 on Oct 19, 2026 at 4pm EDT?Kalshi · S&P 500 Index39%
Oct 21Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 20, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index93%
Oct 23Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 22, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index94%
Oct 23Will Iran target Iraq by October 22, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index93%
Oct 23Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 19 2026?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index10%
Oct 23Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of October 19 2026?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index10%
Oct 23Bitcoin price on Oct 23, 2026? - $77,000 or aboveKalshi · Bitcoin Index92%
Oct 23Bitcoin price on Oct 23, 2026? - $83,000 or aboveKalshi · Bitcoin Index36%
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Sign in free with GoogleThis week’s issueIssue of Tue, Oct 27, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.3 ptsIssue of Sun, Oct 25, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 11.0 ptsIssue of Sun, Oct 11, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 8.2 ptsSign inIssue of Sun, Oct 4, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 27, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 20, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 13, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 11.0 ptsSign in