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Micah Insights

ISSUE OF SUN, SEP 27, 2026

One week of prediction-market readings, and what moved them. This is a past issue, kept as published.

Not enough history yet for a lead this week.

WHERE THE EXCHANGES DISAGREE

No pair cleared the floor this week.

SETTLING THAT WEEK · SEP 27 – OCT 4

Sep 27Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 27?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index100%

Sep 27Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 27?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index100%

Sep 27Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 27?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index91%

Sep 27Will Russia target Kyiv on September 27, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index100%

Sep 27Israel military action against Lebanon on September 27?Polymarket · Global War Index98%

Sep 28Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 September 21-27?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index5%

Sep 28Will Dec-26 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,825 on September 25 2026? (ES) (Stock market) (Wall Street) (Equities) (CME)?ForecastEx · S&P 500 Index1%

Sep 28Will Dec-26 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,725 on September 25 2026? (ES) (Stock market) (Wall Street) (Equities) (CME)?ForecastEx · S&P 500 Index95%

Sep 28Will Dec-26 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,850 on September 25 2026? (ES) (Stock market) (Wall Street) (Equities) (CME)?ForecastEx · S&P 500 Index1%

Sep 28Will Dec-26 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,800 on September 25 2026? (ES) (Stock market) (Wall Street) (Equities) (CME)?ForecastEx · S&P 500 Index87%

Sep 28Will Dec-26 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,775 on September 25 2026? (ES) (Stock market) (Wall Street) (Equities) (CME)?ForecastEx · S&P 500 Index98%

Sep 28Will the S&P 500 be above 7743.51 on Sep 28, 2026 at 4pm EDT?Kalshi · S&P 500 Index55%

Sep 30Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 30, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index27%

Sep 30Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index0%

Oct 1Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in September 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index12%

Oct 1Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?Polymarket · Global War Index2%

Oct 1Will BTC trimmed mean be above $85000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026? - Above $85,000.00Kalshi · Bitcoin Index99%

Oct 1Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index26%

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OTHER ISSUES

This week’s issue Issue of Tue, Oct 27, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.3 pts Issue of Sun, Oct 25, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 11.0 pts Issue of Sun, Oct 18, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.6 ptsSign in Issue of Sun, Oct 11, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 8.2 ptsSign in Issue of Sun, Oct 4, 2026No lead that weekSign in Issue of Sun, Sep 20, 2026No lead that weekSign in Issue of Sun, Sep 13, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 11.0 ptsSign in