Micah Insights
ISSUE OF SUN, OCT 25, 2026
One week of prediction-market readings, and what moved them. This is a past issue, kept as published.
THE LEAD · 2026 BALANCE OF POWER
11.0 points separate the House and the Governor.
The House index reads 51.4 and the Governor 40.4, 11.0 points apart (near the top of its range; over 4 weeks on record the gap has run 8.1–11.7).
11.0SPREAD · PTS
51.4HOUSE
40.4GOVERNOR
The spread has run 8.1–11.7 over 4 weeks on record. Index levels on a 0–100 scale, not the probability of any single outcome.
Will France declare a state of emergency before Nov 1, 2026?Kalshi 7.0% · Polymarket 6.6% · 0.4 pt gap
Oct 25Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 25?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index99%
Oct 26Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index5%
Oct 26S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on October 26?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index100%
Oct 26Will the S&P 500 be above 7623.63 on Oct 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?Kalshi · S&P 500 Index67%
Oct 26S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index56%
Oct 27Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 26?Polymarket · Global War Index90%
Oct 30Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index57%
Oct 30Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of October 26 2026?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index77%
Oct 31Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket · Global War Index88%
Oct 31Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index24%
Oct 31US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket · Global War Index94%
Nov 1France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index7%
Nov 1Will France declare a state of emergency before Nov 1, 2026?Kalshi · Global War Index7%
Nov 1Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index48%
Nov 1Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index10%
Nov 1Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index3%
Nov 1Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index64%
Nov 1Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index5%
This week’s issueIssue of Tue, Oct 27, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.3 ptsIssue of Sun, Oct 18, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.6 ptsSign inIssue of Sun, Oct 11, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 8.2 ptsSign inIssue of Sun, Oct 4, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 27, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 20, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 13, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 11.0 ptsSign in