Micah Insights
ISSUE OF TUE, OCT 27, 2026
One week of prediction-market readings, and what moved them. This is a past issue, kept as published.
THE LEAD · 2026 BALANCE OF POWER
10.3 points separate the House and the Governor.
The House index reads 50.4 and the Governor 40.2, 10.3 points apart (mid-range; over 5 weeks on record the gap has run 8.1–11.7).
10.3SPREAD · PTS
50.4HOUSE
40.2GOVERNOR
The spread has run 8.1–11.7 over 5 weeks on record. Index levels on a 0–100 scale, not the probability of any single outcome.
Will France declare a state of emergency before Nov 1, 2026?Kalshi 3.0% · Polymarket 1.4% · 1.6 pt gap
Oct 27Will Dec-26 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,725 on October 26 2026? (ES) (Stock market) (Wall Street) (Equities) (CME)?ForecastEx · S&P 500 Index3%
Oct 27Will Dec-26 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,675 on October 26 2026? (ES) (Stock market) (Wall Street) (Equities) (CME)?ForecastEx · S&P 500 Index98%
Oct 27Will Dec-26 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,750 on October 26 2026? (ES) (Stock market) (Wall Street) (Equities) (CME)?ForecastEx · S&P 500 Index1%
Oct 27Will Dec-26 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,775 on October 26 2026? (ES) (Stock market) (Wall Street) (Equities) (CME)?ForecastEx · S&P 500 Index6%
Oct 27Will Dec-26 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,700 on October 26 2026? (ES) (Stock market) (Wall Street) (Equities) (CME)?ForecastEx · S&P 500 Index84%
Oct 27Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 27?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index100%
Oct 27Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 27?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index97%
Oct 27Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 27?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index99%
Oct 27S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index52%
Oct 28Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 27?Polymarket · Global War Index90%
Oct 30Bitcoin price on Oct 30, 2026? - $78,000 or aboveKalshi · Bitcoin Index75%
Oct 31Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket · Global War Index94%
Oct 31US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket · Global War Index98%
Nov 1Will France declare a state of emergency before Nov 1, 2026?Kalshi · Global War Index3%
Nov 1France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index1%
Nov 1Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by November 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET? - Before November 2026Kalshi · Bitcoin Index2%
Nov 1Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index2%
Nov 1What will Volodymyr Zelenskyy say during Meet the Press originally scheduled for October 18, 2026? - CeasefireKalshi · Global War Index1%
Nov 3Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?Polymarket · Senate Index4%
This week’s issueIssue of Sun, Oct 25, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 11.0 ptsIssue of Sun, Oct 18, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.6 ptsSign inIssue of Sun, Oct 11, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 8.2 ptsSign inIssue of Sun, Oct 4, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 27, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 20, 2026No lead that weekSign inIssue of Sun, Sep 13, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 11.0 ptsSign in