India
Armed-conflict risk on India, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Asia and the world reading.
LIVE$6K TRADED / 24H·3 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·ASIA·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
9.3Calm risk · 25th of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
India reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
13.030D HIGH
2.930D LOW
▲ 0.430D CHANGE
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What is driving India's reading?What traders are pricing
The contracts that move India
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?11%Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?8%Will India and Bangladesh go to war by EOY 2026?3%
3 contracts carry all of today's volume. 1 of the 3 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN ASIA
Afghanistan 59.2 ›Pakistan 31.5 ›Philippines 18.5 ›North Korea 13.8 ›China 9.7 ›Taiwan 6.9 ›South Korea 4.0 ›Japan 3.9 ›
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