Taiwan
Armed-conflict risk on Taiwan, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Asia and the world reading.
LIVE$943 TRADED / 24H·3 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·ASIA·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
6.9Calm risk · 27th of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
Taiwan reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
21.530D HIGH
2.930D LOW
▼ 14.530D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT TAIWAN
What is driving Taiwan's reading?What traders are pricing
The contracts that move Taiwan
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?4%Nothing Ever Happens: 202681%If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force? [Metaculus]66%
3 contracts carry all of today's volume. 2 of the 3 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN ASIA
Afghanistan 59.2 ›Pakistan 31.5 ›Philippines 18.5 ›North Korea 13.8 ›China 9.7 ›India 9.3 ›South Korea 4.0 ›Japan 3.9 ›
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