++++
Taiwan
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
31.8
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
19
Contracts
3
Prediction Market Exchanges
19
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
4.0PMI
Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?Manifold
$12.7k
7.0PMI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Polymarket
$7.7k
61.0PMI
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?Metaculus
$2.0k
5.0PMI
Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?Metaculus
$854
25.1PMI
Contingent on Greenland invasion by USA, China invades Taiwan within 1 year?Manifold
$665
26.4PMI
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?Manifold
$395
11.0PMI
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?Manifold
$354
66.0PMI
If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?Metaculus
$264
51.0PMI
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?Metaculus
$202
70.0PMI
If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?Metaculus
$194
70.0PMI
If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?Metaculus
$177
69.0PMI
Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?Metaculus
$166
65.6PMI
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force? [Metaculus]Manifold
$120
10.0PMI
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?Metaculus
$104
5.6PMI
Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?Metaculus
$48
2.0PMI
Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?Metaculus
$44
10.0PMI
Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?Metaculus
$44
44.0PMI
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030Manifold
$18
10.5PMI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027? (Tumbles Judgement)Manifold
$14