Pakistan
Armed-conflict risk on Pakistan, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Asia and the world reading.
LIVE$546 TRADED / 24H·4 CONTRACTS·1 EXCHANGE·ASIA·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
31.5Simmering risk · 12th of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
Pakistan reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
100.030D HIGH
2.930D LOW
▲ 1.330D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT PAKISTAN
What is driving Pakistan's reading?What traders are pricing
The contracts that move Pakistan
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026?47%Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?11%Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?8%Will Houthis target Pakistan by December 31, 2026?7%
4 contracts carry all of today's volume. 4 of the 4 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN ASIA
Afghanistan 59.2 ›Philippines 18.5 ›North Korea 13.8 ›China 9.7 ›India 9.3 ›Taiwan 6.9 ›South Korea 4.0 ›Japan 3.9 ›
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