++++
Pakistan
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
13.3
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
4
Contracts
2
Prediction Market Exchanges
4
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
16.0PMI
Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$3.1k
10.0PMI
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$553
1.4PMI
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?Metaculus
$53
29.0PMI
Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?Metaculus
$24