North Korea
Armed-conflict risk on North Korea, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Asia and the world reading.
LIVE$2K TRADED / 24H·2 CONTRACTS·1 EXCHANGE·ASIA·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
13.8Calm risk · 19th of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
North Korea reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
73.030D HIGH
0.130D LOW
▲ 8.930D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT NORTH KOREA
What is driving North Korea's reading?What traders are pricing
The contracts that move North Korea
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?4%Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?33%
2 contracts carry all of today's volume. 2 of the 2 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN ASIA
Afghanistan 59.2 ›Pakistan 31.5 ›Philippines 18.5 ›China 9.7 ›India 9.3 ›Taiwan 6.9 ›South Korea 4.0 ›Japan 3.9 ›
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