Maine Senate 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
39.1
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
39.1enters as 39.1
Democrats win
60.9enters as 100 − 60.9 = 39.1
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the Senate
Does Maine decide the Senate?
Not by itself. It is inside the Republicans’ path.
Republicans need 4 of the 7 contested seats; Maine is priced as their 3rd most likely win. The seat that tips control is Texas at 33.8.
MOST LIKELY DEMOCRATICSEAT PMI
Alaska27.8Michigan31.0Ohio31.8TexasTIPS CONTROL33.8Maine39.1
Iowa58.8Kansas59.9MOST LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Democrats need 51 seats, Republicans 50 (the Republican Vice President breaks ties). Democrats count from the top, Republicans from the bottom.
Full Senate pictureContracts behind this reading · 6 of 17
Sorted by weight
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine? - Susan Collins40.0Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?38.5Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?61.5Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine? - Troy Jackson61.0Will Susan Collins win re-election to Maine's Senate seat in 2026?41.0Troy Jackson wins 2026 US Senate election in Maine?62.0
Show all 17 contracts
Troy Jackson wins 2026 US Senate election in Maine?60.7Maine US Senate Winner - Susan Collins46.0Maine US Senate Winner - Troy Jackson61.0Maine Senate General Election — Janet T. Mills2.0Maine Senate General Election — Susan Collins42.5Maine Senate General Election — Troy Jackson62.5Maine Senate General Election — David Costello50.0Will the Democratic party win the Maine general election for US Senate in 2026?60.0Maine US Senate Winner - Graham Platner55.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Maine? - Republican (Collins)41.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Maine? - Democratic (Jackson)60.0
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 39.1 · ◦ play money · rows open on the exchange
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