Bahrain
Armed-conflict risk on Bahrain, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Middle East and the world reading.
LIVE$77 TRADED / 24H·2 CONTRACTS·1 EXCHANGE·MIDDLE EAST·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
11.0Calm risk · 22nd of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
Bahrain reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
63.030D HIGH
10.030D LOW
▼ 26.330D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT BAHRAIN
What is driving Bahrain's reading?What traders are pricing
The contracts that move Bahrain
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026?11%Will Bahrain join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?8%
2 contracts carry all of today's volume. 2 of the 2 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST
Gaza 93.0 ›Saudi Arabia 55.2 ›Syria 42.9 ›Lebanon 41.7 ›United Arab Emirates 37.6 ›Iraq 34.8 ›Iran 22.7 ›Yemen 21.1 ›Israel 19.7 ›Oman 15.5 ›Jordan 15.3 ›Kuwait 9.5 ›Qatar 4.0 ›
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