Israel
Armed-conflict risk on Israel, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Middle East and the world reading.
LIVE$159K TRADED / 24H·31 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·MIDDLE EAST·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
19.7Low risk · 15th of 36 countries
▼ 13.3 24h · ▼ 17.0 7d
▼ 13.3 24h · ▼ 17.0 7d
Israel reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
59.530D HIGH
18.530D LOW
▼ 23.130D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT ISRAEL
Why did Israel cool this week?What traders are pricing · top 5 of 31 by volume
The five contracts that move Israel
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?95%Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?0%Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?12%Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?13%Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?9%
These 5 are 100% of today's volume. 18 of the 31 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST
Gaza 93.0 ›Saudi Arabia 55.2 ›Syria 42.9 ›Lebanon 41.7 ›United Arab Emirates 37.6 ›Iraq 34.8 ›Iran 22.7 ›Yemen 21.1 ›Oman 15.5 ›Jordan 15.3 ›Bahrain 11.0 ›Kuwait 9.5 ›Qatar 4.0 ›
Back to Middle East