++++
Israel
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
37.7
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
32
Contracts
3
Prediction Market Exchanges
32
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
18.3PMI
Could a direct war between Israel and Iran trigger a global conflict?Manifold
$12.3k
73.0PMI
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket
$11.6k
12.4PMI
100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030?Manifold
$4.9k
13.9PMI
Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?Manifold
$4.3k
26.1PMI
Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?Manifold
$3.4k
61.9PMI
Will there be ceasefires in the Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Hamas wars during the Trump presidency?Manifold
$2.5k
9.3PMI
Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?Manifold
$2.3k
1.0PMI
Will Israel attack Georgia, Armenia, Greece, Bulgaria in 2029?Manifold
$975
61.0PMI
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?Manifold
$913
42.2PMI
Israel enters into a new war in 2026?Manifold
$853
19.1PMI
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?Polymarket
$735
14.0PMI
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Manifold
$694
8.8PMI
Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?Polymarket
$628
15.4PMI
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?Polymarket
$388
34.3PMI
NATO country shoots down Israeli aircraft, missile, or drone before 2031?Manifold
$345
99.0PMI
Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?Metaculus
$285
54.5PMI
Will Syria and Israel go to war by 2030Manifold
$274
2.0PMI
Will Israel conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?Metaculus
$203
16.0PMI
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?Polymarket
$179
44.9PMI
Israeli invasion of Syria in December 2024 involves 20-year land grab?Manifold
$159
2.0PMI
Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?Metaculus
$141
53.8PMI
Will the US or Israel strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site before Oct 1, 2027?Manifold
$73
16.0PMI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Polymarket
$70
22.0PMI
US announces military base in Israel in 2026?Polymarket
$63
34.0PMI
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?Polymarket
$59
12.0PMI
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$41
38.3PMI
Will Israel attack Iraq in 2038?Manifold
$30
21.0PMI
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Polymarket
$25
8.4PMI
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?Polymarket
$25
0.1PMI
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?Polymarket
$19
100.0PMI
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 16?Polymarket
$16
10.0PMI
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?Polymarket
$0