Iraq
Armed-conflict risk on Iraq, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Middle East and the world reading.
LIVE$322 TRADED / 24H·5 CONTRACTS·1 EXCHANGE·MIDDLE EAST·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
34.8Simmering risk · 9th of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
Iraq reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
78.730D HIGH
1.530D LOW
▲ 21.430D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT IRAQ
What is driving Iraq's reading?What traders are pricing
The five contracts that move Iraq
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?9%Will Iran target Iraq by November 15, 2026?89%Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?5%KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?6%Will Iraq join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?8%
5 contracts carry all of today's volume. 5 of the 5 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST
Gaza 93.0 ›Saudi Arabia 55.2 ›Syria 42.9 ›Lebanon 41.7 ›United Arab Emirates 37.6 ›Iran 22.7 ›Yemen 21.1 ›Israel 19.7 ›Oman 15.5 ›Jordan 15.3 ›Bahrain 11.0 ›Kuwait 9.5 ›Qatar 4.0 ›
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