Yemen
Armed-conflict risk on Yemen, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Middle East and the world reading.
LIVE$16K TRADED / 24H·16 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·MIDDLE EAST·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
21.1Low risk · 14th of 36 countries
▼ 18.7 24h · ▼ 11.6 7d
▼ 18.7 24h · ▼ 11.6 7d
Yemen reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
44.630D HIGH
15.130D LOW
▼ 13.130D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT YEMEN
Why did Yemen cool this week?What traders are pricing · top 5 of 16 by volume
The five contracts that move Yemen
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?23%US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?99%Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?95%Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?11%Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31, 2026?8%
These 5 are 99% of today's volume. 13 of the 16 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST
Gaza 93.0 ›Saudi Arabia 55.2 ›Syria 42.9 ›Lebanon 41.7 ›United Arab Emirates 37.6 ›Iraq 34.8 ›Iran 22.7 ›Israel 19.7 ›Oman 15.5 ›Jordan 15.3 ›Bahrain 11.0 ›Kuwait 9.5 ›Qatar 4.0 ›
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