Lebanon
Armed-conflict risk on Lebanon, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Middle East and the world reading.
LIVE$163 TRADED / 24H·6 CONTRACTS·1 EXCHANGE·MIDDLE EAST·AS OF OCT 27, 16:57 UTC
41.7Simmering risk · 7th of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
Lebanon reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
99.530D HIGH
7.030D LOW
▼ 28.930D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT LEBANON
What is driving Lebanon's reading?What traders are pricing · top 5 of 6 by volume
The five contracts that move Lebanon
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?6%Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?6%Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?6%Israel military action against Lebanon on October 28?93%Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 31?5%
These 5 are 100% of today's volume. 6 of the 6 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST
Gaza 93.0 ›Saudi Arabia 58.2 ›Syria 42.9 ›United Arab Emirates 39.2 ›Iraq 35.1 ›Yemen 23.1 ›Iran 23.0 ›Israel 19.8 ›Jordan 15.2 ›Oman 15.2 ›Bahrain 11.0 ›Kuwait 9.0 ›Qatar 4.3 ›
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