Gaza

Armed-conflict risk on Gaza, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMI, which rolls up into Middle East and the world reading.

LIVE$7K TRADED / 24H·3 CONTRACTS·1 EXCHANGE·MIDDLE EAST·AS OF OCT 27, 16:57 UTC

93.0Severe risk · 1st of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d

Gaza reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27

Sep 27Oct 27

93.530D HIGH

7.730D LOW

▲ 65.330D CHANGE

✦ ASK ABOUT GAZA

What is driving Gaza's reading?

What traders are pricing

The contracts that move Gaza

Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?7%Polymarket ↗ · $7K / 24h100% of the book Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?12%Polymarket ↗ · $0 / 24h<1% of the book U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?5%Polymarket ↗ · $0 / 24h<1% of the book

3 contracts carry all of today's volume. 2 of the 3 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.

OTHER COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST

Saudi Arabia 58.2 ›Syria 42.9 ›Lebanon 41.7 ›United Arab Emirates 39.2 ›Iraq 35.1 ›Yemen 23.1 ›Iran 23.0 ›Israel 19.8 ›Jordan 15.2 ›Oman 15.2 ›Bahrain 11.0 ›Kuwait 9.0 ›Qatar 4.3 ›

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