Syria
Armed-conflict risk on Syria, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Middle East and the world reading.
LIVE$181 TRADED / 24H·8 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·MIDDLE EAST·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
42.9Simmering risk · 6th of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
Syria reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
74.030D HIGH
3.030D LOW
▲ 12.830D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT SYRIA
What is driving Syria's reading?What traders are pricing · top 5 of 8 by volume
The five contracts that move Syria
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?4%Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?28%Will the United States cease its military campaign in Syria by 2026?88%Will Syria and Israel go to war by 203047%Will Houthis target Syria by December 31, 2026?6%
These 5 are 100% of today's volume. 6 of the 8 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST
Gaza 93.0 ›Saudi Arabia 55.2 ›Lebanon 41.7 ›United Arab Emirates 37.6 ›Iraq 34.8 ›Iran 22.7 ›Yemen 21.1 ›Israel 19.7 ›Oman 15.5 ›Jordan 15.3 ›Bahrain 11.0 ›Kuwait 9.5 ›Qatar 4.0 ›
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