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Middle East Conflict Index

Regional armed-conflict heat — a GDP/population-weighted mean over the region's full country roster (absent countries count as 0).

41.0
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
115
Contracts
3ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
Prediction Market Exchanges
114
PMI Holdings
Region conflict map

Countries

93.0PMI

Jordan Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Jordan, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
1 Contracts
71.3PMI

Lebanon Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Lebanon, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
3 Contracts
69.0PMI

United Arab Emirates Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in United Arab Emirates, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
1 Contracts
67.7PMI

Bahrain Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Bahrain, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
2 Contracts
67.1PMI

Saudi Arabia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Saudi Arabia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
4 Contracts
39.6PMI

Iran Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Iran, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
74 Contracts
37.7PMI

Israel Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Israel, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
32 Contracts
33.8PMI

Gaza Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Gaza, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
3 Contracts
32.9PMI

Yemen Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Yemen, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
6 Contracts
27.2PMI

Kuwait Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Kuwait, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
2 Contracts
24.3PMI

Qatar Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Qatar, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
1 Contracts
22.7PMI

Syria Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Syria, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
5 Contracts
17.1PMI

West Bank Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in West Bank, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
1 Contracts
15.7PMI

Oman Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Oman, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
6 Contracts
10.4PMI

Egypt Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Egypt, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
3 Contracts
9.1PMI

Iraq Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Iraq, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
3 Contracts