Middle East
Every country in Middle East, weighted by GDP and population, rolled into one PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one.. Countries with no market count as zero.
LIVE$550K TRADED / 24H·14 OF 16 COUNTRIES PRICED·133 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·AS OF OCT 27, 16:57 UTC
29.1Middle East · 1st of 5 regions
▼ 3.4 24h · ▼ 5.9 7 days
▼ 3.4 24h · ▼ 5.9 7 days
Middle East reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
40.830D HIGH
20.430D LOW
▼ 5.730D CHANGE
✦ MICAH BRIEF · MIDDLE EASTUPDATED 16:57 UTC
Middle East reads low, 1st of 5 regions. Gaza carries the highest reading.
Israel cooled to 19.8 this week−17.1Gaza reads highest in Middle East93.0
2 of 16 countries have no market—
COLOR = PMI · GRAY = NO MARKET
PMI 0–100
015304560
No market — a coverage gap, not peace
By country · 14 of 16 priced · tap one
Countries ranked by PMI
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COUNTRYPMI24H7D
Gaza ›THIN3 contracts · $7K93.0——Saudi Arabia ›14 contracts · $101K58.2+3.7−8.2Syria ›THIN8 contracts · $18142.9——Lebanon ›THIN6 contracts · $16341.7——United Arab Emirates ›THIN4 contracts · $55139.2——Iraq ›THIN5 contracts · $32235.1——Yemen ›16 contracts · $16K23.1−14.0−9.2Iran ›72 contracts · $425K23.0−1.1−7.3Israel ›31 contracts · $170K19.8−12.6−17.1Jordan ›THIN1 contract · $20915.2——Oman ›THIN3 contracts · $13415.2——Bahrain ›THIN2 contracts · $7711.0——Kuwait ›THIN2 contracts · $689.0——Qatar ›THIN2 contracts · $3394.3——Thin = under $10K a day, where one trade can move the price. — = no move recorded for this window.
Contracts to watch · MIDDLE EAST
Where the money is
QUESTIONYES24H VOL
Will Israel and Iran maintain a ceasefire by November 1st?Polymarket · Iran · 2 contracts95%$166KWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket · Iran18%$114KMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Polymarket · Saudi Arabia53%$74KWill the US and Iran achieve a lasting resolution?Polymarket · Iran · 2 contracts45%$26KCould a direct war between Israel and Iran trigger a global conflict?Manifold ◦ · Iran18%Ṁ12KWill the U.S. use a nuclear weapon against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain between November 4 and November 10, 2026?Manifold ◦ · Iran3%Ṁ12KAll 96 questionsA question folds every contract that asks it, across exchanges. 24h vol = real money traded today. ◦ = play money, not counted.