United Arab Emirates
Armed-conflict risk on the United Arab Emirates, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Middle East and the world reading.
LIVE$551 TRADED / 24H·4 CONTRACTS·1 EXCHANGE·MIDDLE EAST·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
37.6Simmering risk · 8th of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
United Arab Emirates reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
73.230D HIGH
25.030D LOW
▼ 28.430D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
What is driving the United Arab Emirates's reading?What traders are pricing
The contracts that move United Arab Emirates
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?5%Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 30, 2026?41%UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?6%Will the United Arab Emirates join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?2%
4 contracts carry all of today's volume. 4 of the 4 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST
Gaza 93.0 ›Saudi Arabia 55.2 ›Syria 42.9 ›Lebanon 41.7 ›Iraq 34.8 ›Iran 22.7 ›Yemen 21.1 ›Israel 19.7 ›Oman 15.5 ›Jordan 15.3 ›Bahrain 11.0 ›Kuwait 9.5 ›Qatar 4.0 ›
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